Research / Published collection

The full collection.

Published research, presented for reading with its original publication context and source links.

Market structure

The auditor paradox: why the chain over-credits.

The buffer account, reconciled.

The buffer pool is a shared overdraft no one is reconciling.

↗Market structure

The capital found nature. The risk layer did not.

↗Underwriting

Carbon has no actuarial table. Someone has to build it.

Nine hundred and eighty million credits are waiting at a door.

The claim is now illegal, and the credits are still on the books

↗The record and concentration

The shape of the loss

Four conditions before you price a counterfactual.

The delivery ledger: what was contracted, what arrived.

The EU made durable removals a regulated asset. The risk layer has to catch up.

↗Market structure

The empty chair in carbon risk.

The day carbon became a number the auditor has to sign

The ghost carbon in the mangrove.

↗First principles

The party that rates an asset cannot be the party that sells it.

Integrity has a price now. Most books cannot see the line.

↗First principles

Models argue. The record settles.

Opinions diverge. Outcomes do not.

A ratio without its denominator is a rhetorical device.

When a standard reprices a vintage, it reprices your book overnight.

Regulation is not weather. It is a sequence of dated decisions.

Markets strand assets when demand changes, not when they expire

↗Reclassification

The sorting machine: how a vintage gets repriced overnight, with no watchlist

Carbon's subprime moment

The missing covenant

↗Underwriting

Your own model cannot validate your own book.

How to value a carbon credit you cannot trust

VM0047 is the most rigorous baseline in carbon. It still cannot price the risk.

Who marks your carbon book?